Stade El Bachir · Analysis updated 04:41 UTC
Gabon vs Guinea-Bissau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Gabon and 1.45 for Guinea-Bissau, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Guinea-Bissau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gabon home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guinea-Bissau away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guinea-Bissau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Gabon and 1.45 for Guinea-Bissau, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–08.1%
Recent form
Gabon
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Niger · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Trinidad and Tobago · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-12-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ivory Coast · 2-3 (L)
Guinea-Bissau
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tanzania · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Burkina Faso · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Burkina Faso · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-06-09T19:00:00.000Z · Gabon 2-0 Guinea-Bissau (Friendlies)
- 2022-11-17T17:00:00.000Z · Gabon 3-1 Guinea-Bissau (Friendlies)
- 2017-01-14T16:00:00.000Z · Gabon 1-1 Guinea-Bissau (Africa Cup of Nations)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.