BPSC Stadium · Analysis updated 08:33 UTC
Gaborone United vs Calendar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Gaborone United and 0.90 for Calendar, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Gaborone United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gaborone United win
64.5% probability
Expected goals
2.07 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gaborone United home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Calendar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gaborone United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for Gaborone United and 0.90 for Calendar, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Gaborone United
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Africans · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Africans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Prisons XI · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BDF XI · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Centre Chiefs · 1-0 (W)
Calendar
- 2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TAFIC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gaborone United · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Extension Gunners · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Black Lions · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Galaxy · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Tonota | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Centre Chiefs | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Orapa United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Extension Gunners | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | TAFIC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Police XI | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Galaxy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Nico United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Township Rollers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Enesia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Matebele | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | BDF XI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Morupule Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gaborone United win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.