Gaborone United vs Morupule Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Gaborone United and 0.52 for Morupule Wanderers, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Gaborone United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gaborone United win

67.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.76 – 0.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gaborone United home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Morupule Wanderers away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gaborone United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 22% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Gaborone United and 0.52 for Morupule Wanderers, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gaborone United win68%

Draw22%

Morupule Wanderers win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–018.0%
2–015.8%
0–010.2%
1–19.4%
3–09.3%

Recent form

Gaborone United

2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Africans · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Africans · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Prisons XI · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BDF XI · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Centre Chiefs · 1-0 (W)

Morupule Wanderers

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Township Rollers · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Police XI · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Police XI · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Galaxy · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tonota	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Gaborone United	4	4	0	0	6	12
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	3	2	1	2	11
4	Centre Chiefs	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Orapa United	6	2	3	1	3	9
6	Extension Gunners	6	2	3	1	-1	9
7	TAFIC	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Police XI	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Galaxy	4	2	1	1	1	7
10	Nico United	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	1	2	2	0	5
12	Enesia	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Matebele	6	1	1	4	-3	4
14	BDF XI	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	0	3	2	-4	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gaborone United win, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.