· Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Gaborone United vs Morupule Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Gaborone United and 0.47 for Morupule Wanderers, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Gaborone United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gaborone United win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gaborone United home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gaborone United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 21% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Gaborone United and 0.47 for Morupule Wanderers, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.5%
- 2–016.8%
- 3–010.2%
- 0–010.2%
- 1–18.6%
Recent form
Gaborone United
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nico United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Police XI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Morupule Wanderers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Africans · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Africans · 1-1 (D)
Morupule Wanderers
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prisons XI · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaborone United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Township Rollers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Police XI · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · Gaborone United 3-1 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2026-03-18T17:00:00.000Z · Gaborone United 1-0 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Gaborone United 2-1 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-04-13T13:30:00.000Z · Gaborone United 3-1 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2025-01-04T14:00:00.000Z · Gaborone United 2-4 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2024-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · Gaborone United 3-1 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2023-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · Gaborone United 3-1 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2023-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · Gaborone United 0-0 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2023-01-14T14:00:00.000Z · Gaborone United 1-0 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
- 2022-04-15T13:30:00.000Z · Gaborone United 0-0 Morupule Wanderers (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Tonota | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Galaxy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Centre Chiefs | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Orapa United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Extension Gunners | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | TAFIC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Police XI | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Nico United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Township Rollers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Enesia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Matebele | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | BDF XI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Morupule Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gaborone United win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.