David Petriashvili Stadium · Analysis updated 10:12 UTC
Gagra vs Dila Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Gagra and 1.35 for Dila, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Dila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dila win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gagra home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dila away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dila to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 28% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Gagra and 1.35 for Dila, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–09.7%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–28.8%
Recent form
Gagra
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Meshakhte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 1-1 (D)
Dila
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 53 |
| 2 | Rustavi | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 52 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 51 |
| 5 | Dila | 29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 40 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 38 |
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 37 |
| 8 | Gagra | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -17 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -11 | 26 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | -27 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dila win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.