Gagra vs FC Iberia 1999 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Gagra and 1.53 for FC Iberia 1999, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives FC Iberia 1999 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gagra home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Iberia 1999 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Gagra win30%

Draw25%

FC Iberia 1999 win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–110.0%
1–29.1%
1–07.9%
0–27.6%

Recent form

Gagra

2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Meshakhte · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 1-1 (D)

FC Iberia 1999

2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dila · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Truiden · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · Gagra 2-0 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2026-05-20T15:00:00.000Z · Gagra 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2026-04-03T17:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2025-12-06T13:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2025-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-3 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2025-05-29T16:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-3 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2025-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · Gagra 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2024-12-01T15:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2024-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
2024-05-28T16:00:00.000Z · Gagra 4-0 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)

Erovnuli Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	15	8	6	13	53
2	Rustavi	29	15	7	7	12	52
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	16	4	9	11	52
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	14	9	6	16	51
5	Dila	29	12	4	13	4	40
6	Samgurali	29	11	5	13	-9	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	9	10	10	8	37
8	Gagra	29	6	11	12	-17	29
9	Spaeri	29	5	11	13	-11	26
10	Meshakhte	29	2	11	16	-27	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.