David Petriashvili Stadium · Referee A. Aptsiauri · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Gagra vs Torpedo Kutaisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Gagra and 1.35 for Torpedo Kutaisi, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Torpedo Kutaisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gagra home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torpedo Kutaisi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Gagra
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Meshakhte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dila · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 · 2-0 (W)
Torpedo Kutaisi
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Samgurali · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gagra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-1 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-05-28T16:00:00.000Z · Gagra 2-1 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · Gagra 2-2 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · Gagra 0-2 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-08-03T17:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-2 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-04-24T17:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-2 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-03-01T14:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-2 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2024-11-27T16:00:00.000Z · Gagra 0-2 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2024-09-22T17:00:00.000Z · Gagra 0-3 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2024-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · Gagra 1-2 Torpedo Kutaisi (Erovnuli Liga)
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.