Axis Bird Stadium · Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Gainare Tottori vs Fukushima United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Gainare Tottori and 1.97 for Fukushima United, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Fukushima United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.5% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gainare Tottori home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fukushima United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fukushima United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 38% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Gainare Tottori and 1.97 for Fukushima United, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.1%
Recent form
Gainare Tottori
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs V-varen Nagasaki · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanazawa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nara Club · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitakyushu · 4-2 (W)
Fukushima United
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Roasso Kumamoto · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Nara Club | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | FC Gifu | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Sagamihara | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Osaka | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 9 | Parceiro Nagano | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Kanazawa | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Biwako Shiga | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Gainare Tottori | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Tochigi SC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 | Fukushima United | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -23 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.