Gamla Ullevi · Analysis updated 09:04 UTC
Gais vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Gais and 1.20 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Gais the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gais home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vasteras SK FK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gais to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Gais and 1.20 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Gais
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Orgryte IS · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sirius · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mjallby AIF · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Djurgardens IF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BK Hacken · 0-0 (D)
Vasteras SK FK
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Halmstad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjallby AIF · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Malmo FF · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 55 |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 49 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 48 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 42 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -2 | 38 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 37 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | -9 | 37 |
| 10 | IF Brommapojkarna | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Gais | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 31 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -14 | 23 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -20 | 20 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -25 | 19 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -28 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.