Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.73 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Fenerbahçe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Galatasaray home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fenerbahçe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Galatasaray win32%

Draw23%

Fenerbahçe win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–29.1%
2–17.5%
0–17.4%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Galatasaray

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kocaelispor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP · 1-3 (L)

Fenerbahçe

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eyüpspor · 8-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaziantep FK · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-26T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 3-0 Fenerbahçe (Süper Lig)
2026-01-10T15:45:00.000Z · Galatasaray 0-2 Fenerbahçe (Super Cup)
2025-12-01T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 1-1 Fenerbahçe (Süper Lig)
2025-04-02T17:45:00.000Z · Galatasaray 2-1 Fenerbahçe (Türkiye Kupası)
2025-02-24T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 0-0 Fenerbahçe (Süper Lig)
2024-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 3-1 Fenerbahçe (Süper Lig)
2024-05-19T16:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 0-1 Fenerbahçe (Süper Lig)
2024-04-07T18:30:00.000Z · Galatasaray 1-0 Fenerbahçe (Super Cup)
2023-12-24T16:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 0-0 Fenerbahçe (Süper Lig)
2023-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 3-0 Fenerbahçe (Süper Lig)

Süper Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Galatasaray	7	5	1	1	5	16
2	Beşiktaş	7	5	0	2	8	15
3	Amed	7	4	2	1	8	14
4	Fenerbahçe	7	4	1	2	13	13
5	Trabzonspor	7	4	1	2	11	13
6	Alanyaspor	7	3	3	1	2	12
7	Kocaelispor	7	4	0	3	2	12
8	Çorum FK	7	3	1	3	4	10
9	Kasımpaşa	7	2	4	1	0	10
10	Rizespor	7	3	1	3	-2	10
11	Başakşehir	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Gaziantep FK	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	7	2	2	3	-8	8
14	Erzurumspor FK	7	2	2	3	-8	8
15	Göztepe	7	1	3	3	0	6
16	Konyaspor	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Samsunspor	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Eyüpspor	7	1	0	6	-18	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.