Rams Park Stadyumu · Referee Halil Umut Meler, Türkiye · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.35 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Galatasaray the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Galatasaray home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Galatasaray to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Galatasaray and 1.35 for Kasımpaşa, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Galatasaray
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kocaelispor · 1-0 (W)
Kasımpaşa
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 0-1 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2025-12-21T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 3-0 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2025-03-02T13:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 3-3 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2024-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 3-3 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2024-03-17T13:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 4-3 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2023-11-03T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 2-1 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2023-03-11T16:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 1-0 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2022-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 3-2 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2022-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 2-1 Kasımpaşa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-01-20T17:00:00.000Z · Galatasaray 1-3 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.