· Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Galtabacks vs Jonsered Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Galtabacks and 1.77 for Jonsered, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Jonsered the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Galtabacks home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jonsered away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jonsered to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 36% / 23% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Galtabacks and 1.77 for Jonsered, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.72 | 53.5% | 55.9% | 1.79 | +2.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.19 | 75.8% | 77.4% | 1.29 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 34.6% | 35.8% | 2.79 | +1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.83 | 32.1% | 33.3% | 3.00 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.70 | 33.5% | 34.0% | 2.94 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 2.18 | 41.2% | 41.6% | 2.40 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.36 | 66.5% | 66.0% | 1.52 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.53 | 58.9% | 58.4% | 1.71 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.38 | 65.3% | 64.2% | 1.56 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.34 | 67.9% | 66.7% | 1.50 | -1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.72 | 24.2% | 22.6% | 4.42 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.98 | 46.5% | 44.1% | 2.27 | -2.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Galtabacks
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hestrafor · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lindome · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrio · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Västra Frölunda · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Onsala · 0-2 (L)
Jonsered
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Böljan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hestrafor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Åstorp · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torslanda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Qviding FIF · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · Galtabacks 1-1 Jonsered (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
- 2026-06-05T17:00:00.000Z · Galtabacks 2-4 Jonsered (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
Division 2 - Västra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 46 |
| 3 | Jonsered | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 42 |
| 4 | Hestrafor | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Lindome | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Västra Frölunda | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
| 7 | Böljan | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 34 |
| 8 | Qviding FIF | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| 9 | Onsala | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 | Torslanda | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Kongahälla | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 27 |
| 12 | Åstorp | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -12 | 26 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -8 | 20 |
| 14 | Astrio | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | -35 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.