· Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Galtabacks vs Västra Frölunda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Galtabacks and 1.48 for Västra Frölunda, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Västra Frölunda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Galtabacks home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Västra Frölunda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Västra Frölunda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Galtabacks and 1.48 for Västra Frölunda, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 43.4% vs market 34.8%, edge +8.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 34.8% | 43.4% | 2.30 | +8.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.60 | 58.4% | 59.0% | 1.69 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 33.7% | 33.8% | 2.96 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.2% | 25.2% | 3.97 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.8% | 74.8% | 1.34 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.15 | 41.1% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 66.8% | 66.2% | 1.51 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.2% | 56.6% | 1.77 | -8.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Galtabacks
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hestrafor · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lindome · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrio · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Västra Frölunda · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Onsala · 0-2 (L)
Västra Frölunda
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Åstorp · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Galtabacks · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dalstorps · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Onsala · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lindome · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Galtabacks 4-1 Västra Frölunda (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · Galtabacks 2-3 Västra Frölunda (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
Division 2 - Västra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 60 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 52 |
| 3 | Jonsered | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 42 |
| 4 | Hestrafor | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | Västra Frölunda | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Qviding FIF | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Böljan | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Lindome | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| 9 | Torslanda | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | -1 | 34 |
| 10 | Onsala | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Kongahälla | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -9 | 30 |
| 12 | Åstorp | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 23 |
| 14 | Astrio | 26 | 2 | 4 | 20 | -40 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.