· Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Galvez vs Monte Roraima Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Galvez and 2.83 for Monte Roraima, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Monte Roraima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monte Roraima win
71.5% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Galvez home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monte Roraima away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monte Roraima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 13% / 15% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Galvez and 2.83 for Monte Roraima, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–27.3%
- 0–36.9%
- 1–16.1%
Recent form
Galvez
- 2026-06-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Araguaína · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-05-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto Velho · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Independência · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Humaitá · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Guaporé · 0-1 (L)
Monte Roraima
- 2026-06-28T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Guaporé · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Guaporé · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional AM · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Manauara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-24T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Sao Raimundo · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monte Roraima win, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.