Panasonic Stadium Suita · Analysis updated 11:53 UTC
Gamba Osaka vs Tokushima Vortis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.22 for Tokushima Vortis, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Gamba Osaka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gamba Osaka win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gamba Osaka home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tokushima Vortis away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gamba Osaka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Gamba Osaka and 1.22 for Tokushima Vortis, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Gamba Osaka
- 2026-10-24T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avispa Fukuoka · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Shimizu S-pulse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Jets · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kashima · 0-2 (L)
Tokushima Vortis
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Vegalta Sendai · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gamba Osaka win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.