Bjoelsenhallen · Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
Gamle Oslo vs Drøbak / Frogn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Gamle Oslo and 1.87 for Drøbak / Frogn, a combined total of 4.24. That distribution gives Gamle Oslo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gamle Oslo win
49.5% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gamle Oslo home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Drøbak / Frogn away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gamle Oslo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 20% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Gamle Oslo and 1.87 for Drøbak / Frogn, a combined 4.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.4%
- 3–16.0%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Gamle Oslo
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Oslo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Asker · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vålerenga II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Heming · 2-1 (W)
Drøbak / Frogn
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bjørkelangen · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gjøvik-Lyn · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Raelingen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyn II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fram · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gamle Oslo win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.