Stadion Gandzasar · Analysis updated 06:59 UTC
Gandzasar vs FC Urartu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Gandzasar and 2.20 for FC Urartu, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives FC Urartu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Urartu win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gandzasar home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Urartu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 17% / 20% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Gandzasar and 2.20 for FC Urartu, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–37.2%
Recent form
Gandzasar
- 2026-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardarapat · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Van · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Urartu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat · 0-2 (L)
FC Urartu
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Shirak | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Ararat | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 9 | Van | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -17 | 10 |
| 10 | Syunik | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
| 11 | BKMA | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Urartu win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.