Stadion Gandzasar · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Gandzasar vs Sardarapat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Gandzasar and 2.22 for Sardarapat, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Sardarapat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sardarapat win
56.7% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 2.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gandzasar home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sardarapat away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sardarapat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 23% / 20% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Gandzasar and 2.22 for Sardarapat, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.4%
- 1–36.9%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Gandzasar
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Urartu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 0-3 (L)
Sardarapat
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Noah · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs BKMA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Alashkert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyunik Yerevan · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shirak · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Shirak | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | BKMA | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sardarapat win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.