Stadion Gandzasar · Analysis updated 17:10 UTC
Gandzasar vs Shirak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gandzasar and 1.70 for Shirak, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Shirak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shirak win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gandzasar home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shirak away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Gandzasar
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Urartu · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 0-3 (L)
Shirak
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ararat-Armenia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardarapat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Van · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Urartu · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 0-1 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 3-2 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2025-11-22T12:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 0-1 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2025-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 1-1 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2025-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 1-0 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2024-10-31T14:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 0-0 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2024-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 1-2 Shirak (Premier League)
- 2022-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 0-0 Shirak (First League)
- 2021-12-09T10:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 0-4 Shirak (First League)
- 2021-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · Gandzasar 2-1 Shirak (First League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Shirak | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | BKMA | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shirak win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.