· Analysis updated 00:45 UTC
Gangneung City vs Yeoju Sejong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Gangneung City and 1.33 for Yeoju Sejong, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Yeoju Sejong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.5% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gangneung City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yeoju Sejong away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–28.8%
Recent form
Gangneung City
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Siheung Citizen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Korail · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyeongju HNP · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Busan Transportation · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors II · 2-1 (W)
Yeoju Sejong
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Chuncheon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Pocheon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mokpo City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangjin Citizen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · Gangneung City 1-1 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2026-04-04T05:00:00.000Z · Gangneung City 1-1 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2025-09-20T05:00:00.000Z · Gangneung City 1-1 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2025-05-24T08:00:00.000Z · Gangneung City 1-1 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2024-08-17T10:00:00.000Z · Gangneung City 4-3 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
- 2024-04-21T05:00:00.000Z · Gangneung City 0-0 Yeoju Sejong (K3 League)
K3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 23 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 46 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 37 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 35 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 31 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Changwon City | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | -2 | 29 |
| 9 | Ulsan Citizen | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | -2 | 28 |
| 10 | Yeoju Sejong | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Gangneung City | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 27 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | -14 | 24 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 23 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 23 | 1 | 7 | 15 | -28 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.