Gangneung Stadium · Referee Yong-jun Shin, South Korea · Analysis updated 08:57 UTC
Gangwon FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.73 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Gangwon FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gangwon FC win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gangwon FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bucheon FC 1995 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gangwon FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Gangwon FC and 0.73 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.2%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–18.8%
Recent form
Gangwon FC
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Incheon United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Kitchee · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors · 1-1 (D)
Bucheon FC 1995
- 2026-10-17T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Incheon United · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 31 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 65 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Gangwon FC | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Jeju United FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 46 |
| 5 | Jeonbuk Motors | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 43 |
| 7 | Incheon United | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 42 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 31 | 10 | 11 | 10 | -8 | 41 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | -9 | 40 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 31 | 5 | 18 | 8 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | 12 | 17 | -41 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gangwon FC win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.