South-Korea · K League 1 · Matchweek 3007:30

0 – 1

Sunday, 20 September 2026

Gangneung Stadium · Referee Dae-Yong Kim, South Korea · Analysis updated 12:37 UTC

Gangwon FC vs Jeju United FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.15 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Gangwon FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gangwon FC home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jeju United FC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Gangwon FC win37%

Draw28%

Jeju United FC win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–011.4%
0–111.0%
0–09.5%
2–17.9%

Recent form

Gangwon FC

2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Seoul · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Incheon United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Phnom Penh Crown · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Incheon United · 0-0 (D)

Jeju United FC

2026-10-18T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Seoul · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gwangju FC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-21T10:30:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 1-1 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
2026-03-22T07:30:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 1-1 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
2025-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 0-0 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
2025-05-06T07:30:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 3-0 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
2025-03-02T07:30:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 0-0 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
2024-07-20T10:30:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 4-0 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
2024-06-02T07:30:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 2-1 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
2024-03-02T07:30:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 1-1 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
2023-10-28T07:30:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 1-1 Jeju United FC (K League 1)
2023-08-06T10:30:00.000Z · Gangwon FC 1-1 Jeju United FC (K League 1)

K League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Seoul	33	20	7	6	32	67
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	33	15	6	12	5	51
3	Daejeon Citizen	33	13	10	10	12	49
4	Jeonbuk Motors	33	12	12	9	10	48
5	Gangwon FC	33	11	15	7	10	48
6	Incheon United	33	12	10	11	8	46
7	Jeju United FC	33	12	10	11	2	46
8	FC Anyang	33	10	13	10	-8	43
9	Pohang Steelers	33	11	9	13	-9	42
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	33	5	19	9	-8	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	33	7	11	15	-15	32
12	Gwangju FC	33	3	12	18	-39	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.