Ganshoren vs Stade Mouscronnois Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Ganshoren and 2.20 for Stade Mouscronnois, a combined total of 4.78. That distribution gives Ganshoren the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ganshoren win

47.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.58 – 2.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ganshoren home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Mouscronnois away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ganshoren to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 19% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Ganshoren and 2.20 for Stade Mouscronnois, a combined 4.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ganshoren win47%

Draw19%

Stade Mouscronnois win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals85%

Over 3.5 goals70%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

2–26.8%
2–16.2%
3–25.8%
3–15.3%
1–25.3%

Recent form

Ganshoren

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Mouscronnois · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs RUS Binche · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SG-Tertre-Hautrage · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crossing Schaerbeek · 4-0 (W)

Stade Mouscronnois

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aywaille · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calamine · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acren-Lessines · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs RUS Binche · 4-4 (D)
2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen II · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second Amateur Division - ACFF table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SG-Tertre-Hautrage	10	7	1	2	11	22
2	Crossing Schaerbeek	10	6	2	2	11	20
3	Jette	9	5	4	0	9	19
4	Stade Mouscronnois	10	5	2	3	4	17
5	Huy	10	5	2	3	3	17
6	Braine	10	5	2	3	1	17
7	AS Eupen II	9	4	3	2	3	15
8	Richelle United	10	4	2	4	-1	14
9	Ganshoren	9	4	1	4	5	13
10	Ostiches	9	3	4	2	2	13
11	La Calamine	10	4	1	5	1	13
12	RUS Binche	10	3	4	3	-3	13
13	Stade Verviers	10	3	3	4	2	12
14	Acren-Lessines	9	3	2	4	2	11
15	Stockay-Warfusée	9	2	3	4	-6	9
16	Entité Manageoise	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	Union Namur	10	1	1	8	-21	4
18	Aywaille	9	0	1	8	-17	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ganshoren win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.