Essity Stadium · Referee M. James · Analysis updated 18:59 UTC
GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Airbus UK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 1.23 for Airbus UK, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives GAP Connah S Quay FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GAP Connah S Quay FC win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GAP Connah S Quay FC home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Airbus UK away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
GAP Connah S Quay FC
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Llandudno · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Porthmadog · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Penybont · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Barry Town · 4-1 (W)
Airbus UK
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Holywell · 6-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 3-0 Airbus UK (Premier League)
- 2023-02-04T14:00:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 5-0 Airbus UK (Welsh Cup)
- 2022-12-02T19:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-1 Airbus UK (Premier League)
- 2022-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-0 Airbus UK (Premier League)
- 2021-09-21T18:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 6-3 Airbus UK (League Cup)
- 2019-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 4-0 Airbus UK (Premier League)
- 2019-12-26T14:30:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-1 Airbus UK (Premier League)
- 2016-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 5-1 Airbus UK (Premier League)
- 2016-12-26T13:00:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 3-0 Airbus UK (Premier League)
- 2016-05-14T16:15:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-0 Airbus UK (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 40 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -31 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GAP Connah S Quay FC win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.