Essity Stadium · Referee I. A. Griffith · Analysis updated 10:37 UTC
GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Caernarfon Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 1.28 for Caernarfon Town, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives GAP Connah S Quay FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GAP Connah S Quay FC win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GAP Connah S Quay FC home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caernarfon Town away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
GAP Connah S Quay FC
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Llandudno · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Porthmadog · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Penybont · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Barry Town · 4-1 (W)
Caernarfon Town
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Flint Town United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Haverfordwest County AFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Barry Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 9-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T13:30:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-2 Caernarfon Town (Premier League)
- 2026-03-13T19:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 4-2 Caernarfon Town (Premier League)
- 2026-02-06T19:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-1 Caernarfon Town (Premier League)
- 2026-01-13T19:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-2 Caernarfon Town (Premier League)
- 2025-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-2 Caernarfon Town (Premier League)
- 2024-12-03T19:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-1 Caernarfon Town (Premier League)
- 2024-09-28T16:15:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-3 Caernarfon Town (Premier League)
- 2024-09-17T18:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 3-2 Caernarfon Town (League Cup)
- 2024-03-15T19:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-2 Caernarfon Town (Premier League)
- 2024-02-02T19:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-1 Caernarfon Town (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 14 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 40 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 34 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 29 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 26 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 7 | Airbus UK | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 8 | Cardiff MET | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -31 | 9 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GAP Connah S Quay FC win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.