Essity Stadium · Analysis updated 11:06 UTC
GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Porthmadog Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 1.07 for Porthmadog, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives GAP Connah S Quay FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GAP Connah S Quay FC win
53.7% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GAP Connah S Quay FC home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Porthmadog away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GAP Connah S Quay FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 1.07 for Porthmadog, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
GAP Connah S Quay FC
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Llandudno · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Porthmadog · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Penybont · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Barry Town · 4-1 (W)
Porthmadog
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gresford Athletic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bangor City 1876 FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Newtown AFC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ruthin Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bala Town · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GAP Connah S Quay FC win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.