GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Trefelin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.09 expected goals for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 0.43 for Trefelin, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives GAP Connah S Quay FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

GAP Connah S Quay FC win

88.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.09 – 0.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

GAP Connah S Quay FC home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trefelin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GAP Connah S Quay FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 9% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.09 goals for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 0.43 for Trefelin, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

GAP Connah S Quay FC win89%

Draw9%

Trefelin win3%

Double chance 1X

97%

Double chance 12

92%

Double chance X2

11%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals46%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

3–014.5%
2–014.1%
4–011.2%
1–09.1%
5–06.9%

Recent form

GAP Connah S Quay FC

2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Llandudno · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Porthmadog · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Penybont · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Barry Town · 4-1 (W)

Trefelin

2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Flint Town United · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Llantwit Major · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 6-0 Trefelin (Premier League)
2024-11-16T14:00:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 2-1 Trefelin (Welsh Cup)
2021-09-25T11:45:00.000Z · GAP Connah S Quay FC 4-0 Trefelin (Welsh Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	The New Saints	14	13	1	0	47	40
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	14	11	1	2	23	34
3	Penybont	13	9	3	1	14	30
4	Caernarfon Town	14	9	2	3	24	29
5	Colwyn Bay	14	8	2	4	7	26
6	Barry Town	14	8	1	5	3	25
7	Airbus UK	14	8	0	6	8	24
8	Cardiff MET	14	6	4	4	8	22
9	Cambrian & Clydach	14	5	3	6	-13	18
10	Llandudno	14	5	1	8	-3	16
11	Haverfordwest County AFC	14	4	1	9	-9	13
12	Briton Ferry	14	3	3	8	-12	12
13	Flint Town United	14	3	2	9	-11	11
14	Ammanford AFC	14	2	3	9	-31	9
15	Trefelin	14	1	3	10	-25	6
16	Holywell	13	0	2	11	-30	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is GAP Connah S Quay FC win, at 88.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.