Gardabani vs Guria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Gardabani and 2.63 for Guria, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Guria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Guria win

77.9% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.73 – 2.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gardabani home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 8% / 14% / 78% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Gardabani and 2.63 for Guria, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Gardabani win8%

Draw14%

Guria win78%

Double chance 1X

22%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

92%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–212.1%
0–310.6%
0–19.2%
1–28.8%
1–37.7%

Recent form

Gardabani

2026-09-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Betlemi · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Didube 2014 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Irao · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs WIT Georgia · 0-5 (L)

Guria

2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gonio · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	25	17	5	3	56	56
2	Varketili	25	16	8	1	44	56
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	12	10	3	22	46
4	Gonio	25	13	5	7	10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	12	7	6	7	43
6	WIT Georgia	25	11	5	9	9	38
7	Irao	25	10	6	9	10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	10	6	9	3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	9	8	8	3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	9	7	9	3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	10	4	11	-8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	7	5	13	-15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	3	11	11	-14	20
14	Gardabani	25	4	4	17	-42	16
15	Betlemi	25	4	4	17	-51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	3	5	17	-37	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Guria win, at 77.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.