· Analysis updated 13:24 UTC
Gardabani vs WIT Georgia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Gardabani and 1.95 for WIT Georgia, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives WIT Georgia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
WIT Georgia win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gardabani home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
WIT Georgia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 0–212.2%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–37.9%
Recent form
Gardabani
- 2026-09-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Betlemi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Didube 2014 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Irao · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs WIT Georgia · 0-5 (L)
WIT Georgia
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Iveria Khashuri · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Iberia 2010 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · Gardabani 0-5 WIT Georgia (Liga 3)
- 2026-03-05T09:30:00.000Z · Gardabani 0-0 WIT Georgia (Liga 3)
- 2025-11-13T10:00:00.000Z · Gardabani 0-1 WIT Georgia (Liga 3)
- 2025-06-08T13:30:00.000Z · Gardabani 2-2 WIT Georgia (Liga 3)
- 2016-11-13T10:00:00.000Z · Gardabani 0-2 WIT Georgia (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2016-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · Gardabani 1-2 WIT Georgia (Erovnuli Liga 2)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Varketili | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 40 | 49 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | Merani Tbilisi | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Gonio | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 38 |
| 6 | WIT Georgia | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 35 |
| 7 | Irao | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 34 |
| 8 | Didube 2014 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 34 |
| 9 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Margveti 2006 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -17 | 21 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -35 | 16 |
| 14 | Iveria Khashuri | 22 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -24 | 13 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -41 | 13 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 15 | -38 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is WIT Georgia win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.