Gareji vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Gareji and 0.88 for Aragvi Dusheti, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Gareji the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gareji win

51.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gareji home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aragvi Dusheti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gareji to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Gareji and 0.88 for Aragvi Dusheti, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gareji win51%

Draw26%

Aragvi Dusheti win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–014.1%
1–112.3%
2–010.4%
0–09.5%
2–19.1%

Recent form

Gareji

2026-08-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Merani Martvili · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Poti · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aragvi Dusheti · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Telavi · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gagra · 1-4 (L)

Aragvi Dusheti

2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sioni · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Odishi 1919 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Martvili · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Erovnuli Liga 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gareji	27	14	8	5	7	50
2	Telavi	27	11	10	6	4	43
3	Shturmi	27	11	10	6	6	43
4	Merani Martvili	27	10	7	10	-4	37
5	Samtredia	27	11	4	12	8	37
6	Aragvi Dusheti	27	10	5	12	-7	35
7	Sioni	27	8	9	10	1	33
8	Odishi 1919	27	8	8	11	-8	32
9	Kolkheti Poti	27	6	10	11	1	28
10	Gori	27	6	9	12	-8	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gareji win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.