· Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
Garelli United vs Philippine Army Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Garelli United and 1.33 for Philippine Army, a combined total of 5.83. That distribution gives Garelli United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Garelli United win
86.8% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Garelli United home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Philippine Army away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Garelli United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 8% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Garelli United and 1.33 for Philippine Army, a combined 5.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.7%
- 5–16.0%
- 3–15.9%
- 4–05.0%
- 5–04.5%
Recent form
Garelli United
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Maharlika · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-20T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Philippine Army · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuloy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mendiola · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippine Army · 9-1 (W)
Philippine Army
- 2026-05-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Garelli United · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mendiola · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Maharlika · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-02T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tuloy · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-04-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Mendiola · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
PFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manila Digger | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 90 | 54 |
| 2 | Taguig | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 52 |
| 3 | Dynamic Herb Cebu | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 42 |
| 4 | Kaya | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 55 | 41 |
| 5 | Stallion | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 33 |
| 6 | Davao Aguilas | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 32 |
| 7 | Maharlika | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 29 |
| 8 | Garelli United | 20 | 5 | 0 | 15 | -42 | 15 |
| 9 | Tuloy | 20 | 3 | 2 | 15 | -92 | 11 |
| 10 | Mendiola | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -86 | 7 |
| 11 | Philippine Army | 20 | 0 | 2 | 18 | -110 | 2 |
| 1 | Maharlika | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Garelli United | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16 | -34 | 22 |
| 3 | Tuloy | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -87 | 18 |
| 4 | Mendiola | 24 | 3 | 2 | 19 | -89 | 11 |
| 5 | Philippine Army | 24 | 0 | 2 | 22 | -125 | 2 |
| 1 | Manila Digger | 26 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 96 | 63 |
| 2 | Taguig | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 76 | 58 |
| 3 | Kaya | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 55 | 48 |
| 4 | Dynamic Herb Cebu | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 49 | 48 |
| 5 | Davao Aguilas | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 40 |
| 6 | Stallion | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 29 | 37 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Garelli United win, at 86.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.