· Analysis updated 18:13 UTC
Garforth Town vs Guiseley AFC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Garforth Town and 1.87 for Guiseley AFC, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Guiseley AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guiseley AFC win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Garforth Town home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guiseley AFC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guiseley AFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 29% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Garforth Town and 1.87 for Guiseley AFC, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–16.9%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Garforth Town
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bridlington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worksop Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blyth Town · 4-2 (W)
Guiseley AFC
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bamber Bridge · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebburn Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quorn · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stockton Town · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guiseley AFC win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.