Nogometni Igralište Garešnica · Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Garić Garešnica vs Medjimurje Cakovec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for Garić Garešnica and 2.23 for Medjimurje Cakovec, a combined total of 5.05. That distribution gives Garić Garešnica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Garić Garešnica win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
2.83 – 2.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Garić Garešnica home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Medjimurje Cakovec away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Garić Garešnica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 18% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.83 goals for Garić Garešnica and 2.23 for Medjimurje Cakovec, a combined 5.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 3–26.0%
- 2–15.7%
- 3–15.4%
- 2–34.7%
Recent form
Garić Garešnica
- 2025-12-06T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Daruvar · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-11-29T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Domašinec · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pitomača · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-10-31T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Nedelišće · 2-1 (W)
Medjimurje Cakovec
- 2026-02-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-30T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Međimurec Pretetinec · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-22T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Slatina · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Domašinec · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Daruvar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · Garić Garešnica 0-0 Medjimurje Cakovec (Third NL - Sjever)
- 2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Garić Garešnica 0-2 Medjimurje Cakovec (Third NL - Sjever)
- 2024-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Garić Garešnica 1-2 Medjimurje Cakovec (Third NL - Sjever)
Third NL - Sjever table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Koprivnica | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Graničar Đurđevac | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 34 |
| 3 | Dinamo Predavac | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Rudar Mursko Središće | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Bilogora 91 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Međimurec Pretetinec | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| 7 | Polet | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 23 |
| 8 | Graničar Kotoriba | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | Pitomača | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -9 | 19 |
| 10 | Slatina | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 | Podravina Ludbreg | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Medjimurje Cakovec | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 13 | Garić Garešnica | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 13 |
| 14 | Daruvar | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 11 |
| 15 | Nedelišće | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -16 | 10 |
| 16 | Dinamo Domašinec | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -25 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Garić Garešnica win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.