· Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
Gau-Odernheim vs FSV Mainz 05 II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Gau-Odernheim and 1.03 for FSV Mainz 05 II, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Gau-Odernheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gau-Odernheim win
63.7% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gau-Odernheim home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gau-Odernheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Gau-Odernheim and 1.03 for FSV Mainz 05 II, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Gau-Odernheim
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Diefflen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mechtersheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wormatia Worms · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Wiesbach · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs TuS Koblenz · 5-1 (W)
FSV Mainz 05 II
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gau-Odernheim win, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.