Stadio Romeo Malservisi · Analysis updated 14:05 UTC
Gavorrano vs Montevarchi Calcio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Gavorrano and 1.45 for Montevarchi Calcio, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Montevarchi Calcio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Montevarchi Calcio win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gavorrano home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Montevarchi Calcio away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montevarchi Calcio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 20% / 27% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Gavorrano and 1.45 for Montevarchi Calcio, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.4%
- 0–010.8%
- 1–28.8%
Recent form
Gavorrano
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Donato Tavarnelle · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ternana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grassina · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Camaiore · 3-2 (W)
Montevarchi Calcio
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Figline · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Prato · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Robur Siena · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Terranuova Traiana · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Lucchese | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Seravezza | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Scandicci | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Flaminia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Ternana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Terranuova Traiana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Mezzolara | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Rondinella | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Montevarchi Calcio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Grassina | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Progresso | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Montevarchi Calcio win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.