· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Gazalkent vs Pakhtakor II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.89 expected goals for Gazalkent and 0.63 for Pakhtakor II, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Gazalkent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gazalkent win
83.2% probability
Expected goals
2.89 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gazalkent home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pakhtakor II away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gazalkent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 11% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.89 goals for Gazalkent and 0.63 for Pakhtakor II, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.4%
- 3–011.9%
- 4–08.6%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Gazalkent
- 2026-10-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Jayxun · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Qiziriq · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kokand-1912 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yaypan · 0-0 (D)
Pakhtakor II
- 2026-08-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaypan · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lochin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FarDu · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kattaqurgon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpik-Mobiuz · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 20 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 49 |
| 2 | Shortan | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 42 |
| 3 | Metalourg | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 40 |
| 4 | FarDu | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Kattaqurgon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 6 | Gazalkent | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 32 |
| 7 | Lochin | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 32 |
| 8 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 31 |
| 9 | Jayxun | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -3 | 24 |
| 10 | Respublika FA | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 11 | Yaypan | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -14 | 22 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 20 | 3 | 1 | 16 | -32 | 10 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor II | 20 | 3 | 1 | 16 | -33 | 10 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | -36 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gazalkent win, at 83.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.