Gaziantep Stadyumu · Analysis updated 09:29 UTC
Gaziantep FK vs Kasımpaşa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.18 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Kasımpaşa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
73.5% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gaziantep FK home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kasımpaşa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 27% / 30% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.18 for Kasımpaşa, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Gaziantep FK
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Göztepe · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Rizespor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 1-0 (W)
Kasımpaşa
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.