Gaziantep Stadyumu · Referee Batuhan Kolak, Türkiye · Analysis updated 00:44 UTC
Gaziantep FK vs Rizespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.27 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Rizespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gaziantep FK home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rizespor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.1%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 52.5% vs market 44.3%, edge +8.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 52.5% | 1.90 | +8.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.8% | 68.5% | 1.46 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.7% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.25 | 40.7% | 40.7% | 2.46 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.60 | 59.3% | 59.2% | 1.69 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.6% | 31.4% | 3.18 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 73.0% | 72.1% | 1.39 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 47.5% | 2.11 | -8.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Gaziantep FK
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-0 (D)
Rizespor
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Çorum FK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Boluspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Göztepe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 1-2 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2026-04-13T17:00:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 1-2 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-12-17T15:00:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 2-5 Rizespor (Türkiye Kupası)
- 2025-11-08T11:30:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 2-2 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 0-2 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 1-0 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-03-17T10:30:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 1-3 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2023-11-06T17:00:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 2-0 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2022-05-20T17:00:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 2-0 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
- 2021-12-26T10:30:00.000Z · Gaziantep FK 1-0 Rizespor (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.