· Analysis updated 12:37 UTC
Gaziemirspor vs Fethiyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Gaziemirspor and 1.00 for Fethiyespor, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Gaziemirspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gaziemirspor win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fethiyespor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gaziemirspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Gaziemirspor and 1.00 for Fethiyespor, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–06.1%
Recent form
Gaziemirspor
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karsiyaka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Denizli İYG · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bucaspor 1928 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Söke 1970 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayvalikgucu · 0-3 (L)
Fethiyespor
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Serik Spor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs 12 Bingölspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ankara Demirspor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Orduspor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mardin 1969 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gaziemirspor win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.