Gazte Berriak vs Doneztebe FT Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Gazte Berriak and 1.08 for Doneztebe FT, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Gazte Berriak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gazte Berriak win

47.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Most likely outcome
The model rates Gazte Berriak to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Gazte Berriak and 1.08 for Doneztebe FT, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 47% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.

Match result (1X2)

Gazte Berriak win47%

Draw26%

Doneztebe FT win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–011.3%
2–19.2%
2–08.6%
0–18.1%

Recent form

Gazte Berriak

2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Aoiz · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mutilvera · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Subiza · 3-2 (W)

Doneztebe FT

2026-10-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gazte Berriak · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huarte · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pamplona · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aoiz · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 6-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Izarra	6	6	0	0	17	18
2	Mutilvera	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Beti Kozkor	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Gazte Berriak	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Avance Ezcabarte	6	3	2	1	7	11
6	Subiza	6	3	1	2	4	10
7	Aoiz	6	2	3	1	2	9
8	San Juan	6	2	1	3	1	7
9	Doneztebe FT	6	1	3	2	3	6
10	Valle Egüés	6	1	3	2	-1	6
11	Txantrea	6	1	3	2	-5	6
12	Beti Onak	6	0	5	1	-3	5
13	Cortes	6	1	2	3	-6	5
14	Cirbonero	6	1	2	3	-9	5
15	Pamplona	6	0	4	2	-2	4
16	Huarte	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Bidezarra	6	0	3	3	-7	3
18	Cantolagua	6	1	0	5	-13	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gazte Berriak win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.