· Analysis updated 12:04 UTC
GC Mascara vs RC Arba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for GC Mascara and 0.85 for RC Arba, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives GC Mascara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
GC Mascara win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
GC Mascara home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
RC Arba away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GC Mascara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 29% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for GC Mascara and 0.85 for RC Arba, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.2%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
GC Mascara
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs RC Kouba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Usm El Harrach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs MC Saida · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs WA Mostaganem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs RC Arba · 2-1 (W)
RC Arba
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs GC Mascara · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs JS El Biar · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Béchar Djedid · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Témouchent · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CRB Adrar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSP Batna | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Azazga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | USM Annaba | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | MO Constantine | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | NC Magra | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | JSM Skikda | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Khroub | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Nrb Beni Oulbene | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | US Chaouia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | MO Bejaia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Paradou AC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | CA Batna | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Teleghma | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | IRB Nezla | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | CR Béni Thour | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | JS Jijel | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Blida | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | RC Kouba | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 14 |
| 3 | GC Mascara | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | MC Saida | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | ASM Oran | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Usm El Harrach | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Mostaganem | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sidi Benali | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | WA Mostaganem | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Hussein Dey | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Tiaret | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | WA Tlemcen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 13 | RC Arba | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Koléa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | El Bayadh | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | Taghit | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -17 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is GC Mascara win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.