Gebenbach vs Fortuna Regensburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Gebenbach and 1.68 for Fortuna Regensburg, a combined total of 3.39. That distribution gives Gebenbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gebenbach home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Regensburg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gebenbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Gebenbach and 1.68 for Fortuna Regensburg, a combined 3.39 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gebenbach win39%

Draw23%

Fortuna Regensburg win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–18.3%
1–28.1%
2–27.0%
1–05.8%

Recent form

Gebenbach

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg II · 1-6 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Großbardorf · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-1 (D)

Fortuna Regensburg

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordlingen · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger FV · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gebenbach · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bayern Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cham	16	14	1	1	29	43
2	Würzburger FV	16	9	4	3	13	31
3	Bayern Hof	16	8	5	3	11	29
4	Eintracht Bamberg	15	8	4	3	13	28
5	Kornburg	15	7	6	2	14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	8	3	5	1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	16	7	5	4	10	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	6	5	5	6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	16	6	4	6	8	22
10	Stadeln	16	5	6	5	-7	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	6	1	9	-5	19
12	Großbardorf	16	6	1	9	-7	19
13	Weiden	16	4	5	7	-8	17
14	Ammerthal	16	4	3	9	-14	15
15	DJK Bamberg	16	3	5	8	-14	14
16	Nordlingen	16	3	5	8	-16	14
17	Ingolstadt II	16	3	4	9	-11	13
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	1	3	12	-23	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.