· Analysis updated 16:45 UTC
Gebenbach vs Ingolstadt II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Gebenbach and 1.28 for Ingolstadt II, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Gebenbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gebenbach win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gebenbach home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ingolstadt II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–06.9%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Gebenbach
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jahn Regensburg II · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Großbardorf · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stadeln · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Regensburg · 1-1 (D)
Ingolstadt II
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiden · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern Hof · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kornburg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs ASV Neumarkt · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ammerthal · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-24T17:00:00.000Z · Gebenbach 3-1 Ingolstadt II (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2026-04-11T12:00:00.000Z · Gebenbach 3-2 Ingolstadt II (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Gebenbach 0-0 Ingolstadt II (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · Gebenbach 0-6 Ingolstadt II (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2024-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · Gebenbach 2-5 Ingolstadt II (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2023-11-24T19:00:00.000Z · Gebenbach 1-1 Ingolstadt II (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
- 2023-08-04T17:00:00.000Z · Gebenbach 3-2 Ingolstadt II (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
Oberliga - Bayern Nord table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cham | 16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 43 |
| 2 | Würzburger FV | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 31 |
| 3 | Bayern Hof | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Eintracht Bamberg | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 28 |
| 5 | Kornburg | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 27 |
| 6 | Gebenbach | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| 7 | Jahn Regensburg II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| 8 | Viktoria Aschaffenburg | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 |
| 9 | Fortuna Regensburg | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 22 |
| 10 | Stadeln | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 21 |
| 11 | Neudrossenfeld | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -5 | 19 |
| 12 | Großbardorf | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 19 |
| 13 | Weiden | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -8 | 17 |
| 14 | Ammerthal | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -14 | 15 |
| 15 | DJK Bamberg | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -14 | 14 |
| 16 | Nordlingen | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 14 |
| 17 | Ingolstadt II | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 | ASV Neumarkt | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gebenbach win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.