· Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Gedania Gdansk vs Stargard Szczeciński Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Gedania Gdansk and 2.20 for Stargard Szczeciński, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Stargard Szczeciński the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stargard Szczeciński win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gedania Gdansk home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stargard Szczeciński away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stargard Szczeciński to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 34% / 20% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Gedania Gdansk and 2.20 for Stargard Szczeciński, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
Gedania Gdansk
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Września · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kotwica Kórnik · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Flota Świnoujście · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzino · 0-4 (L)
Stargard Szczeciński
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grom Nowy Staw · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gedania Gdansk · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lipno Stęszew · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalisz · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 33 |
| 2 | Luzino | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | Wda Świecie | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 4 | Kluczevia Stargard | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lech Poznań II | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Noteć Czarnków | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Kalisz | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 17 |
| 10 | Grom Nowy Staw | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 16 |
| 11 | Elana Toruń | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 | Unia Swarzędz | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15 |
| 13 | Gedania Gdansk | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Flota Świnoujście | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 17 | Lipno Stęszew | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 11 |
| 18 | Kotwica Kórnik | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stargard Szczeciński win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.