Geestemünde vs Aumund-Vegesack Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.84 expected goals for Geestemünde and 2.73 for Aumund-Vegesack, a combined total of 5.56. That distribution gives Geestemünde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

60.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.84 – 2.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Geestemünde home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aumund-Vegesack away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Geestemünde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 17% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.84 goals for Geestemünde and 2.73 for Aumund-Vegesack, a combined 5.56 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Geestemünde win43%

Draw17%

Aumund-Vegesack win40%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals80%

Both teams to score88%

Correct score

2–25.7%
3–25.4%
2–35.2%
3–34.9%
2–14.2%

Recent form

Geestemünde

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Bremen · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brinkumer SV · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Leher TS · 2-2 (D)

Aumund-Vegesack

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs OSC Bremerhaven · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwachhausen · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eiche Horn · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hemelingen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 7-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hemelingen	11	10	1	0	38	31
2	Brinkumer SV	11	10	0	1	29	30
3	Blumenthaler SV	11	9	0	2	28	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	11	8	1	2	31	25
5	Aumund-Vegesack	11	5	2	4	6	17
6	Geestemünde	11	5	2	4	0	17
7	Vatan Sport	11	5	1	5	-3	16
8	Leher TS	11	4	2	5	7	14
9	Schwachhausen	11	4	2	5	-8	14
10	Union Bremen	11	3	4	4	-3	13
11	BTS Neustadt	11	4	0	7	-12	12
12	Eiche Horn	11	3	3	5	-12	12
13	Grohn	11	3	1	7	-23	10
14	Werder Bremen III	11	1	2	8	-17	5
15	Oberneuland	11	1	2	8	-31	5
16	Woltmershausen	11	1	1	9	-30	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.