Geestemünde vs Brinkumer SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Geestemünde and 4.50 for Brinkumer SV, a combined total of 5.90. That distribution gives Brinkumer SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Brinkumer SV win

85.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 4.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Geestemünde home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brinkumer SV away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Brinkumer SV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 6% / 8% / 86% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Geestemünde and 4.50 for Brinkumer SV, a combined 5.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Geestemünde win6%

Draw8%

Brinkumer SV win86%

Double chance 1X

14%

Double chance 12

92%

Double chance X2

94%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals80%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–46.6%
1–55.9%
1–35.8%
0–44.7%
2–44.6%

Recent form

Geestemünde

2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Bremen · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brinkumer SV · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Leher TS · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Grohn · 4-3 (W)

Brinkumer SV

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BTS Neustadt · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen III · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vatan Sport · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brinkumer SV	11	10	0	1	29	30
2	Hemelingen	10	9	1	0	37	28
3	Blumenthaler SV	10	9	0	1	29	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	7	1	2	28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	5	2	3	9	17
6	Geestemünde	10	4	2	4	-3	14
7	Schwachhausen	10	4	2	4	-6	14
8	Vatan Sport	10	4	1	5	-4	13
9	Union Bremen	10	3	3	4	-3	12
10	Eiche Horn	10	3	3	4	-11	12
11	BTS Neustadt	11	4	0	7	-12	12
12	Leher TS	10	3	2	5	5	11
13	Grohn	11	3	1	7	-23	10
14	Oberneuland	11	1	2	8	-31	5
15	Werder Bremen III	10	1	1	8	-17	4
16	Woltmershausen	10	1	1	8	-27	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Brinkumer SV win, at 85.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.