Geestemünde vs Union Bremen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for Geestemünde and 2.12 for Union Bremen, a combined total of 4.95. That distribution gives Geestemünde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Geestemünde win

53.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.83 – 2.12

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Geestemünde home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Union Bremen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Geestemünde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 18% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.83 goals for Geestemünde and 2.12 for Union Bremen, a combined 4.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Geestemünde win53%

Draw18%

Union Bremen win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score83%

Correct score

2–26.4%
3–26.0%
2–16.0%
3–15.7%
2–34.5%

Recent form

Geestemünde

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Woltmershausen · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Bremen · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Oberneuland · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brinkumer SV · 1-7 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Leher TS · 2-2 (D)

Union Bremen

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Werder Bremen III · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Geestemünde · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Blumenthaler SV · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vatan Sport · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs OSC Bremerhaven · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Bremen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brinkumer SV	11	10	0	1	29	30
2	Hemelingen	10	9	1	0	37	28
3	Blumenthaler SV	10	9	0	1	29	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	11	8	1	2	31	25
5	Aumund-Vegesack	11	5	2	4	6	17
6	Geestemünde	11	5	2	4	0	17
7	Schwachhausen	10	4	2	4	-6	14
8	Union Bremen	11	3	4	4	-3	13
9	Vatan Sport	10	4	1	5	-4	13
10	Eiche Horn	10	3	3	4	-11	12
11	BTS Neustadt	11	4	0	7	-12	12
12	Leher TS	10	3	2	5	5	11
13	Grohn	11	3	1	7	-23	10
14	Werder Bremen III	11	1	2	8	-17	5
15	Oberneuland	11	1	2	8	-31	5
16	Woltmershausen	11	1	1	9	-30	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Geestemünde win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.