Gefle IF vs IF Karlstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.58 for IF Karlstad, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives IF Karlstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

IF Karlstad win

45.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gefle IF home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IF Karlstad away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IF Karlstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Gefle IF and 1.58 for IF Karlstad, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gefle IF win30%

Draw25%

IF Karlstad win46%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.7%
0–19.6%
1–29.2%
0–27.5%
1–07.4%

Recent form

Gefle IF

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Piteå · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Enköping · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vasalund · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Eskilstuna · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Arlanda · 0-2 (L)

IF Karlstad

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Piteå · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Karlberg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Enköping · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FBK Karlstad · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stocksund · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Stockholm Internazionale	26	19	3	4	42	60
2	Arlanda	26	14	6	6	15	48
3	AFC Eskilstuna	26	14	5	7	11	47
4	Hammarby Talang	26	13	6	7	25	45
5	Enköping	26	14	3	9	-1	45
6	IF Karlstad	26	12	8	6	15	44
7	FBK Karlstad	26	12	7	7	5	43
8	Assyriska FF	26	10	5	11	-1	35
9	Umeå FC	26	10	5	11	-6	35
10	Karlberg	26	9	6	11	-8	33
11	Gefle IF	26	9	4	13	-14	31
12	Vasalund	26	7	7	12	-16	28
13	Sollentuna	26	6	9	11	-9	27
14	Piteå	26	5	8	13	-16	23
15	Järfälla	26	5	4	17	-23	19
16	Stocksund	26	3	6	17	-19	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is IF Karlstad win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.