Geita Gold Mine Stadium · Analysis updated 10:23 UTC
Geita Gold vs Fountain Gate Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Geita Gold and 0.95 for Fountain Gate, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Geita Gold the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Geita Gold win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Geita Gold home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fountain Gate away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Geita Gold to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Geita Gold and 0.95 for Fountain Gate, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Geita Gold
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Africans · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Simba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Azam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kagera Sugar · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Namungo · 0-1 (L)
Fountain Gate
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mbeya City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Namungo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mashujaa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Singida Black Stars · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Geita Gold win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.