Geita Gold Mine Stadium · Analysis updated 10:02 UTC
Geita Gold vs Kagera Sugar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Geita Gold and 0.50 for Kagera Sugar, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Geita Gold the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Geita Gold win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Geita Gold home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kagera Sugar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.3%
- 1–022.3%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–011.2%
Recent form
Geita Gold
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Africans · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Simba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Azam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kagera Sugar · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Namungo · 0-1 (L)
Kagera Sugar
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fountain Gate · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Azam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashujaa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Geita Gold · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Singida Black Stars · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T17:30:00.000Z · Geita Gold 6-2 Kagera Sugar (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2024-02-28T13:00:00.000Z · Geita Gold 0-0 Kagera Sugar (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2023-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · Geita Gold 0-1 Kagera Sugar (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2022-12-25T15:15:00.000Z · Geita Gold 2-2 Kagera Sugar (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2022-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · Geita Gold 1-1 Kagera Sugar (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2022-05-07T11:00:00.000Z · Geita Gold 1-0 Kagera Sugar (Ligi kuu Bara)
- 2021-11-20T13:00:00.000Z · Geita Gold 2-1 Kagera Sugar (Ligi kuu Bara)
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Geita Gold win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 25% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.